Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 30.954510 33.247775 35.721633 38.605410 41.896401 45.561603 49.990152
2025-05-18 27.171650 30.194074 33.651006 37.954682 43.253426 49.683799 58.277066
2025-05-25 24.711937 28.071636 32.065744 37.268695 44.036070 52.806102 65.534379
2025-06-01 22.950858 26.502073 30.849040 36.715226 44.691258 55.616933 72.688839
2025-06-08 21.407654 25.024820 29.551370 35.829116 44.671484 57.351286 78.475776
2025-06-15 20.874730 24.750478 29.727562 36.859535 47.351194 63.301973 92.274997
2025-06-22 20.007006 23.963947 29.141171 36.741321 48.296661 66.692860 102.605264
2025-06-29 19.100556 23.060121 28.317365 36.185145 48.473285 68.807569 111.106268
2025-07-06 18.166707 22.063286 27.294471 35.239283 47.909431 69.531098 116.939601
2025-07-13 17.927495 21.988749 27.542937 36.191720 50.492431 76.274930 138.700842
2025-07-20 17.611473 21.784914 27.584715 36.816713 52.587570 82.520147 162.578254
2025-07-27 17.208476 21.434875 27.386505 37.036368 53.987536 87.658197 186.624317
2025-08-03 16.660509 20.867610 26.855230 36.709655 54.423688 90.997818 208.089932
2025-08-10 16.088161 20.242250 26.206167 36.144090 54.358291 93.242877 227.855869
2025-08-17 15.542286 19.632202 25.548567 35.514873 54.098087 94.990210 247.546554
2025-08-24 15.064032 19.101339 24.985224 35.004101 54.010694 97.153103 271.684068
2025-08-31 14.543113 18.489158 24.269369 34.184893 53.222539 97.395632 287.200586
2025-09-07 14.468302 18.529602 24.564499 35.137480 56.154492 108.222113 380.578145
2025-09-14 14.159039 18.208139 24.273572 35.028265 56.841160 113.051781 448.905059
2025-09-21 13.779995 17.768975 23.776430 34.514189 56.591700 115.059144 501.205373
2025-09-28 13.343874 17.231053 23.101605 33.639002 55.461370 114.106310 524.087762
2025-10-05 13.298099 17.281569 23.373794 34.520269 58.382713 127.118890 779.588653
2025-10-12 13.190639 17.232894 23.480484 35.097920 60.692979 139.204289 1196.658718